Nostradamus Predicts Real Estate Market Trends for 2010?

 

Ok, so obviously there’s nothing in Les Propheties that I can think of that predicts any real estate market.  But if I was Nostradamus, here’s what I’d predict:

 

“ Your local housing market will be one of the following; up, down or the same.”

 

Whoah, Ed….prolific yet prescient. How can you be so sure? 

 

Ok, so obviously I cast a little doubt on “experts” predicting the market. But I think primarily it’s because the information the general public receives on a daily basis seems to manifest more personalities than Sybil.

I mean, one look at the articles in today’s media, and surely (bolding for sarcasm) one can get a great sense of what’s going on.

 

Example numero uno. Here’s two recent articles…tell me which one you believe:

 

“Pending Home Sales Down 16%”  

vs.

“Home Resales at Highest Level in Nearly 3 Years”

 

Headlines aside, let’s look at the two main themes of these articles:

 

“The number of people preparing to buy a home in November fell sharply in the latest sign that the housing market, which had been rebounding strongly, may be headed for a "double-dip" downturn over the winter.”

vs.

“Sales of previously occupied homes surged in November to the highest level in nearly three years, spurred by federal subsidies for starter homes and a massive Federal Reserve push to drive down mortgage rates.”

 

Example numero dos.

Construction of New Homes rebounds in November

vs. 

Construction Spending falls more than expected

Huh? What? And both of these articles came from the same news outlet (MSNBC, whose coverage I humbly admit I usually tend to like).

 

And though while the title of this final article is quite vague:

 

“Home prices rise for 5^th straight month”

..one of its key points was this: “Prices have climbed for at least six months in a row in Denver, Washington, Minneapolis and San Francisco. But in Chicago and Tampa, Florida, prices are down by more than a percent from September.”

 

Its premise points to one clear truism: all real estate is local. 

Thus, NostraGoryus was right...Your local housing market will be one of the following; up, down or the same.

 

 

 

Comments

[Poplar Bluff Real Estate]

Are commercial real estate prices destined for the same fate as what's happened in the housing market?

[Ed Gory]

It's already been happening this year -- though the SF bay area's residential market is doing substantially better than commercial as a whole (and it can vary widely at the neighborhood, city, and sometimes street level). Thanks for reading!